You can try it yourself -- the next time you are at a gathering of 20 or 30 people, ask everyone for their birth date.It is likely that two people in the group will have the same birthday. The reason this is so surprising is because we are used to comparing our particular birthdays with others.Nothing is guaranteed obviously, and a relationship is more about compatibility than a birthday.
We expect probabilities to be linear and only consider the scenarios we’re involved in (both faulty assumptions, by the way).
Let’s see why the paradox happens and how it works.
When you put 20 people in a room, however, the thing that changes is the fact that each of the 20 people is now asking each of the other 19 people about their birthdays.
Each individual person only has a small (less than 5%) chance of success, but each person is trying it 19 times. If you want to calculate the exact probability, one way to look at it is like this.
But, as predictors, the study's findings stand to reason.
In a room of just 23 people there’s a 50-50 chance of two people having the same birthday.The study—the overall findings of which my colleague Olga Khazan highlighted last month—used a multivariate model to calculate the factors that seemed to best predict the marriage's chances of success.(Or, at any rate, its chances of not ending in divorce.) Its results were visualized by the data scientist Randy Olson, who created a series of charts to illustrate the study's findings.The untrained brain might think like this: “Well, getting one head is a 50% chance.Sticky Note Surprise For Your Love There are many occasions you might be looking for a creative way to let your spouse know that you love and adore them.Some things to remember about seriously dating someone younger than you.